There's no doubt that the solution of “Syrian problem” before the presidential elections isn't only important, but vital for Obama, his rating has matched with main rival Romny. Nonetheless majority (most of them) coincide that Washington can’t manage during the short period of time before the presidential race, because of the following:
1) Direct military intervention will face with a prepared and far from being weak Syrian army, it will cause unacceptable loss by assaulting force. And the fact that USA and NATO didn’t use the incident with hitting Turkish destroyer (fighter) is real argument.
2) Syrian people even those who are dissatisfied with Assad support their president as they are afraid of worse prospects of changing their country to Libya or Egypt. That's why the headquarters of Washington on “Syrian rebels” is hopeless, as «the rebels” without sincere (only because of fear) supporting of local citizens is remaining subversives. The neutralization of them is just a question of time.
I agree with both thesis, but let’s ask a question, what’s really for the USA victory over Syria, and proudly declare about it to American electors? The answer is surprisingly simple. It’s enough to report the fact that Bashar Assad isn’t Syrian President anymore (die, disappear, gone away somewhere forever).
You ask me – how about the question of successor, whether he will continue Assad’s policy, how about “no democracy” of Syria and its “blooding regime”? There are no such problems. All these problems are fake and spinned, but really it can be decided and uncritical for Obama’s image like “victor” of “dictator” Assad.
And now I’d like to express my own opinion on this situation if the enemy of Syrian will realize this plan.
The East distinguishes from other parts of the world that it can be a good dealer, and can arrange. West economic sanctions against Syria seriously hit social living conditions and the standard of well-being of simple Syrian people. There are no Social riots only because people realize that victorious “revolutionaries” make their life worse. It’s better to pull in a belt or leave the country, than lost not only acquired goods, but their life, if somebody or new boss of country decide to call you “a supporter of Assad’s regime”.
Any new leader of Syria (even an alawi from Assad's circle will do) will be glad to cancel economic sanctions, which will give substantial authority at the beginning among people, as their social position will be better, in exchange for forgetting all offences against West.
What they can demand from him instead of it?
a) cut close relationship between Syria and Iran.
b) Include resource and transit performance capabilities of Syria to supply EU Iranian oil in the face of the embargo.
c) Make sure every reason to the West to declare about “democratic changes” in Syria.
“Non-democracy” of Syria.
The answer is simple. The same situation was in Iraq when they couldn’t find weapons of mass destruction. They can make excuses that didn’t understand Syrian democratic policy for the last year. Meanwhile, modestly keep silent about initiator.
The victims of “bloody regime”
This problem is also can be easily solved. As Bashar Assad is defeated,”the revolutionaries” who are under the control of West lay down arms through militaries of the chief and go to build new Syria (by previous agreement of concrete candidates with Assad’s successor). All of them forgive each other, and Assad is responsible for people who had been killed. Who don’t understand that they should lay down arms…Their life is going to be grievously, but West mass media won’t “feel sorry” for them.
Let’s sum up
1) Did the USA refuse the idea of overthrowing Assad? No, they did not, and the official utterances of secretary of state Hilary Clinton confirms this fact.
2) Will Assad leave himself?
3) Can Washington solve “Syrian question” by arms? It is incredibly, at least before elections.
4) Does Obama need victory over rebellious Syria before elections? Yes. As a result, there is more possibility that Obama could raise the question on special operation of Assad’s liquidation to American security forces, who is still under his control, until September – October. There are indirect indications, but they exist. About what is Washington worried in the first place, when
UN and other countries, including EU pay respects Syrian people and blame the act of terrorism?
American authorities don’t know where President of Syria is after act of terrorism in Damascus.
And Britain newspaper The Guardian hastened to report that Assad is wounded, his family is flotsam, Assad was removed on the plane in latakia, and his wife went to Russia.
So, in case of successful neutralization of Assad Obama wins in terms of politics, and EU wins in terms of economics. Moreover, the Syrian neighbors - Turkey and Israel win too. There'll be hell at the border with Syria.
What about Israel? At least, whole Syria is interested by “conservative” who is opposed to “Hawk” (from the article “Who will be Israel - fireman or homeless victim of a fire?).
The conclusions are obvious – Bashar Al – Assad, who proved himself as wise politic and leader, but brave man, should reinforce his personal safety. There are not only enemy, but there are local Allies, who might decide to reconcile with the West in return of Assad.
Source - etoruskiy.livejournal.com
Tags: barac obama, bashar al-assad, syria, usa, war